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</style><table class="sidebar nomobile nowraplinks hlist law-sidebar"><tbody><tr><th class="sidebar-title"><a href="Conflict_resolution" title="Conflict resolution">Conflict resolution</a></th></tr><tr><th class="sidebar-heading">
<a href="Humanitarian_principles" title="Humanitarian principles"> Principles</a></th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content">
<ul><li><a href="Democracy" title="Democracy">Democracy</a></li>
<li><a href="Might_makes_right" title="Might makes right">Might makes right</a></li>
<li><a href="Non-aggression_principle" title="Non-aggression principle"> Non-aggression</a></li>
<li><a href="Nonviolence" title="Nonviolence">Nonviolence</a></li>
<li><a href="Pacifism" title="Pacifism">Pacifism</a></li>
<li><a href="Rule_of_man" title="Rule of man">Rule of man</a></li>
<li><a href="Speaking_truth_to_power" title="Speaking truth to power">Speaking truth to power</a></li>
<li><a href="Toleration" title="Toleration">Toleration</a>
<ul><li><a href="Paradox_of_tolerance" title="Paradox of tolerance">paradox</a></li></ul></li></ul></td>
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<a href="Law" title="Law">Law</a></th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content">
<ul><li><a href="Collaborative_law" title="Collaborative law"> Collaborative</a></li>
<li><a href="Dispute_resolution" title="Dispute resolution">Dispute resolution</a></li>
<li><a href="Right_to_an_effective_remedy" title="Right to an effective remedy">Right to an effective remedy</a></li>
<li><a href="Rule_of_law" title="Rule of law">Rule of law</a></li></ul></td>
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<a href="Conflict_management" title="Conflict management"> Management</a></th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content">
<ul><li><a href="Arbitration" title="Arbitration">Arbitration</a></li>
<li><a href="Alternative_dispute_resolution" title="Alternative dispute resolution">Alternative dispute resolution</a></li>
<li><a href="Auction" title="Auction">Auction</a></li>
<li><a href="Conciliation" title="Conciliation">Conciliation</a></li>
<li><a href="Family_therapy" title="Family therapy">Family therapy</a></li>
<li><a href="Mediation" title="Mediation">Mediation</a>
<ul><li><a href="Party-directed_mediation" title="Party-directed mediation">Party-directed</a></li></ul></li>
<li><a href="Negotiation" title="Negotiation">Negotiation</a></li>
<li><a href="Nonviolent_Communication" title="Nonviolent Communication">Nonviolent Communication</a></li>
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<ul><li><a href="Appeasement" title="Appeasement">Appeasement</a></li>
<li><a href="Armistice" title="Armistice">Armistice</a></li>
<li><a href="Ceasefire" title="Ceasefire">Ceasefire</a></li>
<li><a href="Diplomacy" title="Diplomacy">Diplomacy</a></li>
<li><a href="Multilateralism" title="Multilateralism">Multilateralism</a></li>
<li><a href="Peacebuilding" title="Peacebuilding">Peacebuilding</a></li>
<li><a href="Peacemaking" title="Peacemaking">Peacemaking</a></li>
<li><a href="Peace_process" title="Peace process">Peace process</a></li>
<li><a href="Peace_treaty" title="Peace treaty">Peace treaty</a></li>
<li><a href="Track_II_diplomacy" title="Track II diplomacy">Track II diplomacy</a></li>
<li><a href="War" title="War">War</a></li></ul></td>
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Models and theories</th></tr><tr><td class="sidebar-content">
<ul><li><a href="Brinkmanship" title="Brinkmanship">Brinkmanship</a></li>
<li><a href="Conflict_escalation" title="Conflict escalation">Conflict escalation</a></li>
<li><a href="Conflict_avoidance" title="Conflict avoidance">Conflict avoidance</a></li>
<li><a href="Conflict_continuum" title="Conflict continuum">Conflict continuum</a></li>
<li><a href="Conflict_style_inventory" title="Conflict style inventory">Conflict style inventory</a></li>
<li><a href="Deterrence_theory" title="Deterrence theory">Deterrence theory</a></li>
<li><a href="Game_theory" title="Game theory">Game theory</a>
<ul><li><a href="Prisoner's_dilemma" title="Prisoner's dilemma">Prisoner's dilemma</a></li></ul></li></ul></td>
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<p>In <a href="Nuclear_strategy" title="Nuclear strategy">nuclear strategy</a>, <b>minimal deterrence</b>, also known as <b>minimum deterrence</b> and <b>finite deterrence</b>, is an application of <a href="Deterrence_theory" title="Deterrence theory">deterrence theory</a> in which a state possesses no more <a href="Nuclear_weapons" class="mw-redirect" title="Nuclear weapons">nuclear weapons</a> than is necessary to deter an adversary from attacking.<sup id="cite_ref-KristensenNorrisOelrich-p21_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-KristensenNorrisOelrich-p21-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Pure minimal deterrence is a doctrine of <a href="No_first_use" title="No first use">no first use</a>, holding that the only mission of nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear adversary by making the cost of a <a href="Pre-emptive_nuclear_strike" class="mw-redirect" title="Pre-emptive nuclear strike">first strike</a> unacceptably high.<sup id="cite_ref-KristensenNorrisOelrich-p21_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-KristensenNorrisOelrich-p21-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> To present a credible deterrent, there must be the assurance that any attack would trigger a retaliatory strike.<sup id="cite_ref-2" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In other words, minimal deterrence requires rejecting a <a href="Counterforce" title="Counterforce">counterforce</a> strategy in favor of pursuing survivable force that can be used in a <a href="Countervalue" title="Countervalue">countervalue</a> <a href="Second_strike" title="Second strike">second strike</a>.
</p><p>While the <a href="United_States" title="United States">United States</a> and the <a href="Soviet_Union" title="Soviet Union">Soviet Union</a> each developed robust first- and second-strike capabilities during the <a href="Cold_War" title="Cold War">Cold War</a>, the <a href="People's_Republic_of_China" class="mw-redirect" title="People's Republic of China">People's Republic of China</a> pursued a doctrine of minimal nuclear deterrence. Assuming that decision-makers make cost-benefit analyses when deciding to use force, China's doctrine calls for acquiring a nuclear arsenal only large enough to destroy an adversary's "strategic points" in such a way that the expected costs of a first strike outweigh the anticipated benefits.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="India" title="India">India</a> has also adopted this strategy, which they term <a href="Minimum_Credible_Deterrence" class="mw-redirect" title="Minimum Credible Deterrence">Minimum Credible Deterrence</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>
</p><p>The "<a href="N-deterrence" class="mw-redirect" title="N-deterrence">minimum credible deterrence</a>" (also known as N-deterrence) policy of Pakistan is a defence and <a href="Strategic_studies" title="Strategic studies">strategic</a> principle on which the country's <a href="Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction" title="Pakistan and weapons of mass destruction">nuclear weapons program</a> is based. This doctrine is not a part of the <a href="Nuclear_doctrine_of_Pakistan" title="Nuclear doctrine of Pakistan">nuclear doctrine</a>, which is designed for the use of the atomic weapons in a full-scale <a href="Declared_war" class="mw-redirect" title="Declared war">declared war</a> if the conditions of the doctrine are surpassed. Instead, the policy of the Minimum Credible Deterrence falls under minimal deterrence as an inverse to the <a href="Mutually_assured_destruction" class="mw-redirect" title="Mutually assured destruction">Mutually Assured Destruction</a> (MAD), which is widely regarded as designed to dissuade India from taking any military actions against Pakistan, as it did during the <a href="Indo-Pakistani_War_of_1971" class="mw-redirect" title="Indo-Pakistani War of 1971">Indo-Pakistani War of 1971</a>.
</p><p>Minimal deterrence represents one way of solving the <a href="Security_dilemma" title="Security dilemma">security dilemma</a> and avoiding an <a href="Arms_race" title="Arms race">arms race</a>. Decision-makers often feel pressured to expand their arsenals when they perceive them to be vulnerable to an adversary's first strike, especially when both sides seek to achieve the advantage.<sup id="cite_ref-5" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Eliminating this perceived vulnerability reduces the incentive to produce more and advanced weapons. For example, the United States’ nuclear force exceeds the requirements of minimal deterrence, and is structured to strike numerous targets in multiple countries and to have the ability to conduct successful counterforce strikes with high confidence.<sup id="cite_ref-6" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> In response to this, China continues to modernize its nuclear forces because its leaders are concerned about the survivability of their arsenal in the face of the United States’ advances in strategic reconnaissance, precision strike, and <a href="Missile_defense" title="Missile defense">missile defense</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-7" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>
</p><p>One disadvantage of minimal deterrence is that it requires an accurate understanding of the level of damage an adversary finds unacceptable, especially if that understanding changes over time so that a previously credible deterrent is no longer credible.<sup id="cite_ref-8" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> A minimal deterrence strategy must also account for the nuclear firepower that would be "lost" or "neutralized" during an adversary's counterforce strike.<sup id="cite_ref-9" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-9"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>9<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Additionally, a minimal deterrence capability may embolden a state when it confronts a superior nuclear power, as has been observed in the relationship between China and the United States.<sup id="cite_ref-10" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-10"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>10<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> Finally, while pursuing minimal deterrence during arms negotiations allows states to make reductions without becoming vulnerable, further reductions may be undesirable once minimal deterrence is reached because they will increase a state's vulnerability and provide an incentive for an adversary to secretly expand its nuclear arsenal.<sup id="cite_ref-11" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-11"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>11<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>
</p>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2></div>
<ul><li><a href="Nuclear_peace" class="mw-redirect" title="Nuclear peace">Nuclear peace</a></li>
<li><a href="Deterrence_theory" title="Deterrence theory">Deterrence</a></li></ul>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Notes">Notes</h2></div>
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<ol class="references">
<li id="cite_note-KristensenNorrisOelrich-p21-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-KristensenNorrisOelrich-p21_1-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-KristensenNorrisOelrich-p21_1-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text">Kristensen, Norris and Oelrich 2009, 21</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-2">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Lieber and Press 2006, 37</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Ross 2002, 56</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Feickert and Kronstadt 2003, 9</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-5">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Freedman 2003, 178</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-6">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Kristensen, Norris and Oelrich 2009, 8</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-7">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Blair 2009, 23</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Stout 2010</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-9"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-9">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Freedman 2003, 195</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-10"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">McVadon 2005, 6</span>
</li>
<li id="cite_note-11"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-11">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text">Nalebuff 1988, 424</span>
</li>
</ol></div>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2></div>
<ul><li><a href="Dennis_C._Blair" title="Dennis C. Blair">Blair, Dennis C</a>. "<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20101214112747/http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20090212_testimony.pdf">Annual Threat Assessment of the Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence</a>." <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.dni.gov/"><i>Office of the Director of National Intelligence</i></a>. February 12, 2009. Accessed August 1, 2010.</li>
<li>Feickert, Andrew, and K Alan Kronstadt. "<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/crs/RL32115.pdf">Missile Proliferation and the Strategic Balance in South Asia</a>." <a href="Congressional_Research_Service" title="Congressional Research Service">Congressional Research Service</a>. October 17, 2003. Accessed August 1, 2010.</li>
<li><a href="Lawrence_Freedman" title="Lawrence Freedman">Freedman, Lawrence</a>. <i>The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy</i>. 3rd Edition. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003.</li>
<li>Kristensen, Hans M, Robert S Norris, and Ivan Oelrich. "<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.fas.org/pubs/_pages/occ_pap7.html">From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward Eliminating Nuclear Weapons</a>." <i><a href="Federation_of_American_Scientists" title="Federation of American Scientists">Federation of American Scientists</a></i>. April 2009. Accessed July 31, 2010.</li>
<li>Lieber, Keir A, and Daryl G Press. "The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. Primacy." <i><a href="International_Security_(journal)" title="International Security (journal)">International Security</a></i> 30, no. 4 (Spring 2006): 7-44.</li>
<li>McVadon, Eric A. "<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2005hearings/written_testimonies/05_09_15wrts/mcvadon.pdf">Recent Trends in China’s Military Modernization</a>." <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.uscc.gov/"><i>U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission</i></a>. September 15, 2005. Accessed August 1, 2010.</li>
<li><a href="Barry_Nalebuff" title="Barry Nalebuff">Nalebuff, Barry</a>. "Minimal Nuclear Deterrence." <i><a href="Journal_of_Conflict_Resolution" title="Journal of Conflict Resolution">Journal of Conflict Resolution</a></i> 32, no. 3 (September 1988): 411–425.</li>
<li><a href="Robert_S._Ross" title="Robert S. Ross">Ross, Robert S</a>. "Navigating the Taiwan Strait: Deterrence, Escalation Dominance, and U.S.-China Relations." <i><a href="International_Security_(journal)" title="International Security (journal)">International Security</a></i> 27, no. 2 (Fall 2002): 48–85.</li>
<li>Stout, Mark. "<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100420092220/http://www.au.af.mil/au/aunews/archive/2010/0507/Articles0507/Stout0507.htm">Minimal Deterrence Makes Minimal Sense (And Here’s Why)</a>." <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20061005021438/http://www.au.af.mil/au/aunews/"><i>The Wright Stuff</i></a>. April 1, 2010. Accessed August 1, 2010.</li></ul></div><!--htdig_noindex--><div><div class="zim-footer">
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